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Sunday, December 16, 2007
Milwaukee Journal Sentinel Empirical Study of Players Named in Mitchell Report The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel has conducted an empirical analysis of the statistical performances of the 90 players named in the Mitchell Report. The study, conducted by JS writers Ben Poston, Derrick Nunnally, Bill Glauber, and Don Walker, compared the players' first two seasons while being linked to performance-enhancers with their career averages.Acknowledging that there may have been other casual factors (e.g., entering one's prime, hitting in a better lineup, receiving better coaching etc.), the study found that more than half of the named players experienced improved performances after being linked to roids. A full image of the chart to the left, which details the findings, can be seen here. The authors interview Gary Wadler, an internist who chairs the World Anti-Doping Agency's Prohibited List and Methods Sub-Committee, and me, for reaction. Also, Tim Lemke of the Washington Times has an extensive piece on the prospects for a libel lawsuit, should any players be erroneously named or described in the Mitchell Report. He interviews MLBPA chief Donald Fehr, Jim Astrachan, an adjunct professor at the University of Maryland College of Law, and me. Update: Alan Milstein discusses some interesting stories below in the comments: Pettitte says he had two shots of HGH to see if he would heal faster, based on the recommendation of a trainer. Considering HGH was not a banned substance, how can anyone fault him for taking a drug to heal better? Don't we all do that? 10 Comments:
Mike,
And did you see these three stories? Pettitte says he had two shots of HGH to see if he would heal faster, based on the recommendation of a trainer. Considering HGH was not a banned substance, how can anyone fault him for taking a drug to heal not perform better? Don't we all do that?http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3156305
My 10 yr. old son, who watches much more baseball than I do, summed it all up for me when he said, "who are all these guys?" Assuming the allegations are even true, if ALL the names are basically retired players and veteran players at the tail end of their careers, doesn't the report tend to prove that the current testing procedures implemented in 2005 ARE IN FACT WORKING? I'm amazed that not one player named is an up and coming player nor anybody in the prime of his career. Why are we suppose to make the conclusion from this report that steroid use is currently a prevalent problem?
Where's the Milwaukee paper's control group? Wouldn't you generally expect that of a random sample of baseball players, half of them would perform better than their career average and the other half wouldn't? Isn't that kind of the definition of "average"?
One possible explanation for the absence of up-and-coming players is the possibility that steroids and HGH are most effective at helping players either get over injuries (both Pettite and Santangelo say they used the substances to help them heal from injuries) or to help keep their bodies going as they aged (which best explains Clemens and Bonds).
Just 50% of players on steroids got better? For any distribution of players would not 50% do better then their career averages while 50% do worse? Doesn't this study actually show that steroids are no more valuable in improving performance then a placebo?
Howard, I guess what you're saying is true if we (the public) are supposedly concerned about players doing things to help them recover. I thought the concern was more about "performance-enhancing" (i.e. hit the ball farther or throw harder). I guess I don't understand why we are not concerned with pitchers having tommy john surgery (which actually does both).
Personally, I think the whole "Peds are bad for your health" is just a myth. There is zero scientific evidence to support this myth and only a small amount of anadotal evidence. By outlawing Peds the government does not even allow any human research to verify what the actual facts are. My belief is that Peds at some level of use (like any other drug) become dangerous but nobody knows what level is safe and what level is dangerous since no real scientific studies have been made on the subject. I am very much inclined to believe that there is a safe level for athletes to use Peds and wish the moralists would get off they high horse and let the scientists determine what that safe level is. This should not be a legal or ethical issue it should be a scientific issue.
Rick:
thanks
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