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Saturday, February 13, 2010
 
B.J. Upton and Rays - Second Hearing This Year

B.J. Upton and the Tampa Bay Rays conducted the second hearing of this year's salary arbitration season yesterday. The case was heard by a veteran panel of Elizabeth Neumeier, Elliott Shriftman and Gil Vernon. The decision is due today. Tampa Bay's "file-and-go" philosophy forced the hearing once the two sides arrived at the filing deadline. Upton requested $3,300,000. The Rays countered with $3,000,000. That produced a midpoint of $3,150,000. The "file-and-go" system helped produce the short gap between the two parties. Either way, the Rays have only $300,000 at stake if they lose, something that they have never experienced in their four previous hearings including a win last year over Dioner Navarro. Will the Upton case produce the Rays' first loss? Upton's 2009 season was a disappointment when compared with 2007 and 2008. He had three-year lows in runs scored, batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. He has only a total of 20 home runs in those two years compared to his 24 in 2007.

This one is so close that it is difficult to predict. With teams owning a 57-43% edge over the history of arbitration, the Hart victory over the Brewers yesterday, and Upton plate decline last year, I am leaning towards the Rays on this one.





6 Comments:

Here is the my listing of the previous decisions of the panelists in the Upton hearing:

Elizabeth Neumeier

Prior to Hearing - 13 Team Wins, 10 Player Wins

Team Wins

Dioner Navarro - Rays - 2009
Francisco Rodriguez - Angels - 2008
Joe Beimel - Dodgers - 2007
Kevin Gregg - Marlins - 2007
Sun-Woo Kim - Rockies - 2006
Rodrigo Lopez - Orioles - 2006
Alfonso Soriano - Nationals - 2006
Javier Vazquez - Expos - 2003
Neifi Perez - Royals - 2002
Osvaldo Fernandez - Reds - 2001
Charles Johnson - Orioles - 2000
Mariano Rivera - Yankees - 2000
Midre Cummings - Red Sox - 1999

Player Wins

Corey Hart - Brewers - 2010
Shawn Hill - Nationals - 2009
Oliver Perez - Mets - 2008
Chad Cordero - Nationals - 2007
Todd Walker - Padres - 2007
Jack Wilson - Pirates - 2004
Sean Casey - Reds - 2001
Andruw Jones - Braves - 2001
Damian Miller - Diamondbacks - 2001
Scott Sullivan - Reds - 2000

Elliott Shriftman

Prior to Hearing - 11 Team Wins, 5 Player Wins

Team Wins

Brian Fuentas - Rockies - 2008
Felipe Lopez - Nationals - 2008
John Patterson - Nationals - 2007
Rodrigo Lopez - Orioles - 2006
Josh Paul - Rays - 2006
Alfonso Soriano - Nationals - 2006
Jeremy Affeldt - Royals - 2005
Eric Gagne - Dodgers - 2004
Johan Santana - Twins - 2004
Carlos Beltran - Royals - 2003
John Rocker - Braves - 2001

Player Wins

Miguel Cabrera - Marlins - 2007
Kyle Loshe - Twins - 2005
A.J. Pierzynski - Giants - 2004
Damian Miller - Diamondbacks - 2001
Brian Hunter - Mariners - 2000

Gil Vernon

Prior to Hearing - 5 Team Wins, 6 Player Wins

Team Wins

Sun-Woo Kim - Rockies - 2006
Midre Cummings - Red Sox - 1999
Jay Bell - Pirates - 1992
Jerry Browne - Indians - 1991
R.J. Reynolds - Astros - 1990

Player Wins

Derek Jeter - Yankees - 1999
Jose Mercedes - 1998
Kevin Brown - Rangers - 1992
Jay Buhner - Mariners - 1992
Rafael Palmeiro - Rangers - 1992
Wally Joyner - Angels - 1991

Blogger Ed Edmonds -- 2/13/2010 12:47 PM  


One of the players that is close to B.J. Upton in service time is Melky Cabrera. Cabrera signed in January with the Braves for $3,100,000.

Here is a statistical comparison:

2009

Stat - Upton - Cabrera

PA - 626 - 540
Runs - 79 - 66
HR - 11 - 13
RBI - 55 - 68
SO - 152 - 59
BA - .241 - .274
OBP - .313 - .336
SLG - .373 - .416

Career

Stat - Upton - Cabrera

PA - 2180 - 2148
Runs - 289 - 250
HR - 49 - 36
RBI - 226 - 228
SO - 526 - 246
BA - .266 - .269
OBP - .352 - .331

Certainly the exchanged numbers are close in the Upton case. If the Rays argued that Cabrera's numbers are comparable, and, that Cabrera had a much better 2009 season, which I think he did, the panel should chalk up this comparison as favoring the Rays' $3,000,000 offer because Cabrera's salary is below the midpoint of $3,150,000.

Blogger Ed Edmonds -- 2/13/2010 1:44 PM  


The Rays defeated Upton today and pushed their hearing record to 5-0.

Blogger Ed Edmonds -- 2/13/2010 7:07 PM  


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Anonymous Alex -- 2/15/2010 3:39 AM  


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